Dean Foods: Earnings. Farms. Jobs. Communities. What’s Ahead?

7_Dean_Foods_Milksheds_Header_Q1_19_2_S
The Dean Foods Earnings Call, a webcast relaying financial news of Dean Foods, a publicly traded company, was held on the morning of Tuesday, May 7th, 2019.
The timeframe immediately before and after these publicly available Earnings Calls, for any company generally provide a wealth of information concerning the financial health and status of that company, along with various industry perspectives.
According to company information, Dean Foods is the “nation’s [US] largest processor and direct-to-store distributor of fluid milk.”  As such, any decisions made by the company will have a direct impact on local/regional dairy communities across the country, affecting many dairy farms and jobs within and related to the processing plants.
It can be said that Dean Foods is perhaps the company which is most supportive of the local and regional farm communities within a fairly close radius of each of its 58 plants.  Additionally, there are 19,000 local jobs in processing and distribution and related company functions at the plants.
Here are general takeaways from the Earnings Call – a grassroots perspective:
  • First: No really horrible news for farms or local business, or even Dean’s resulted from the Q1 call, which I consider a positive, given the company’s downward trending stock prices of late.
  • Second: Stock value was generally up for the day, with market share price at $1.75 at the time of close of business on May 7th.
  • Third: No immediate transitions or sales of the company were announced (as of that day), even though it is no secret the company is exploring options.  Whatever the company’s eventual decisions, there is no doubt that local communities and farm economies across the country will be impacted – but no one knows if that will be in a harmful or helpful manner at this writing. 
  • Fourth: The world of food in general – and dairy companies in particular – is fast-changing, so any news today may be very different a week from now.
Stockholders Meeting: The Dean Foods Stockholder Meeting occurred Wed, May 9th at 9 am, CDT.  The meeting is archived here if readers would like to listen in. There is a delay at the front of the meeting in the recording.
 
Prior to and following the May 7th Earnings Call: These Posts  (chronological)
  • May 6, 2019: Dean Has Got Milk but Few Growth Prospects as it Hunts for Buyer, by Lydia Mulvany and Katherine Doherty for Bloomberg
  • May 6, 2019: Dean Foods Falters from More Concentrated Milk Market – authored by Heather Haddon, for the Wall Street Journal:    (and in case you can’t get to the online edition, here’s a photo of the article as it appeared in print)
  •       5_WSJ_Dean_Foods_S
  • May 7, 6:58 am, by Seeking Alpha: Dean Foods Misses Q1 Estimates – notes that sales declined in 9% in Q1 2019, and to this blogger’s understanding, the comparison point is Q1 in 2018 (will verify). Remember, in 2018, the company still had branded shelf space in Walmarts in several states in the projected distribution radius of the new Walmart plant at Fort Wayne, Indiana.
  • May 7, 10:23 am (after the call): Dean Says It’s Turning the Corner with Dairy Drain Set to End – by Lydia Mulvany and Katherine Doherty for Bloomberg – authors note the report was a ‘mixed bag,’ stated the company’s bonds gained on Tuesday (the day of the call) after ‘tumbling since late February.’
  • Dean Foods Company SEC Filing – Current report (8-K) May 7, 2018 (Financial Statement)
  • A Transcript of the Entire Call – posted by Seeking Alpha – access at this link  (21 pages if you print, follow a link to an audio recording): includes the opening statement by Dean Foods officials, including CEO Ralph Scozzafava, and a Q&A Session with Financial Analysts  from well-known companies
  • Slides – played in conjunction with the Dean Foods officials portions of the call, includes graphs and charts further explaining the verbal points – access at this link

And then following the call:

May 7th, Afternoon:  From the Dallas News:  “Dean Foods posts Wider Losses Than Expected in first quarter amid Conversations with Potential Buyers.”

An article by Dom Difurio, a breaking news business writer for the Dallas Morning News, included these three statements of note:
  • “On a call with analysts frustrated with a lack of details around when the company could turn a financial corner, Dean Foods also reiterated that it’s looking at strategic alternatives to accelerate its business transformation and enhance its value.”
  • “When asked whether the company was in talks with any potential buyers for the company, Scozzafava said it’s possible the company could do nothing.
  • “We’ve been in conversations with some folks, and we’ll leave it at that . . . we are very open minded and exploring some things,”  Scozzafava said.

May 7th, Afternoon:  Dean Foods (DF) Reports Q1 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates  from Zacks Equity Research, a financial publication.

“Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Food-Dairy Products is currently in the bottom 8% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.”
May 7, 2019 at 3:55 pm:   Dean Foods Needs an Activist Investor  
Posted at Seeking Alpha, authored by Holmes Osborne, of Osborne Global Investments
This is a blunt, tell-it-like-it-is perspective from a financial analyst’s viewpoint, who describes the company’s real estate and transportation assets as interesting. He also suggests some action items for the company to take in order to cause company value to rise.
With most of this blog’s readers in agriculture, it should be noted he suggests the company needs to widen its portfolio to include more plant-based or alternative beverages, or expand whey-protein production.
Parts of this article are a bit hard to read, but may be necessary to absorb in order to take action.
Also – take note, some of the $$$ referring to milk sales are not as impactful as he suggests due to market conditions of two different time frames, and some of his other statements related to agriculture show a bit of a lack of knowledge about grass-roots agriculture.
The Good News?  Osborne also suggests it may be time to buy stock, acknowledging it is risky at the moment.  The opening click title was  “Bottom-Fishing Investors, Snag Dean Foods.
May 8th, 2019, Morning:  “Dean Foods Sees Positives After a Quarterly Loss,” by Jeff Gelski for Food Business News.
  • CEO Ralph Scozzafava notes that a cost productivity plan and improvements in free cash flow provide optimistic things about the quarter
  • Scozzafava: “We believe we have passed the inflection point in our transformation, as many of the initiatives we implemented over the past 12 months are now beginning to take hold.”
  • Scozzafava (when asked about a potential sale):  “It’s very possible that we won’t do anything, and we’ll continue to execute the plant that we have, which we’re very happy with, and we’ll continue to make progress on it. “So look, we’ve been in conversations with some folks, and we’ll leave it at that.”
May 8th, 2019, 1:42 pm: “Dean Foods Seen Trading at Fair Value,” posted at Seeking Alpha and authored by Clark Schultz.
  • Notes this from Wells-Fargo Analyst John Baumgartner:  “The outlook features some positives (seq. EBIT improvement, positive FCF, new business wins), but we think weak volumes, expansive price gaps, and inflationary price basis to dairy costs maintain DF in a vulnerable position.”
  • “Wells-Fargo has a Market Perform rating and a target price of $2 on Dean Foods.”
May 9th: Stock closed at $1.65/share
May 10th, 2019, Afternoon:   “Why Dean Foods (DF) Stock Price Advanced Up to 5.76% Today”  by Samuel Moore for Find News
  • Moore observes that stock has an (average analyst) potential target price of $3.47 share, thus a potential to rise 98.29% increase from recent ranges of $1.57 to $1.71.
  • Trading volume was considered high
Dean Foods stock closed at $1.76 for the week of the Earnings Call, up 11 cents from a close at $1.65 on Friday May 3rd.
May 13th, 2019 (Monday):  Dean Foods Shares Up 11.4%”by Harvey Truce for Rockland Register.  Surprisingly,  Dean Foods stock rose 20 cents/share in light trading volume.   A midday report was posted by Ethane Eddington for the Press Recorder, “Dean Foods (DF) Add 4.5%, Cementing Place as Top Mover Today.”
May 13th, Market Close: Stock closed at $1.96/share, and traded as high as $1.98 during the day.
As those in the dairy industry know too well, this is an evolving story with lots of moving parts.  Look for additional updates as they become available.
7_Dean_Foods_Milksheds_Header_Q1_19_2_S

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s