New ‘LOCAL’ Brand in the Mountain South – Thanks, Food City & Milkco!

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Went to a Food City store and what did I see?

A New Brand of LOCAL Milk looking back at me!

 

In a month of challenging news centered on COVID-19 and how it is affecting farms across the country, a once-every-10 days trip to a grocery store offered a bright spot in an otherwise difficult time frame.

 

‘Southern Dairies’ is a new brand of milk making its way onto Food City shelves!  This carton was a sight for sore eyes, particularly when I saw the words  “We support LOCAL dairy farmers!”  And then, I saw the milk plant #37-82,  a milk plant I and many others in the South are familiar with – the Milkco plant at Asheville, NC.   The cost on this day (Friday, April 10, 2020)  was $2.99 / gallon.

 

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Because I’m fairly familiar with farms whose milk is delivered to certain milk plants in the southeast, this made me extremely happy!  That milk plant receives the majority of its milk from farms in northeast TN (from Knox County to Johnson County), southwest VA, North Carolina (central to western NC), SC, and north GA.

 

I have many, many friends whose milk is bought by Milkco, and this is another opportunity for their milk to be available to regional/local consumers!  Truly, this is a case of a milk plant located in the mountain south, purchasing from farms in the south, and delivered to food retailers in the South!  That’s a whole lotta local $$ circulating in the area economy!

 

Food City has collaborated with the Milkco plant before, as they have sourced their Food Club (private label) branded eggnog from them in past holiday seasons.

 

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There were  other brands of gallon milks on the Food City Dairy Case shelf at the time of this visit:  Mayfield is another brand of milk processing milk from southeast dairy farms, with a plant in Athens, TN.    The ‘food club’ brand is bottled at the Superior Milk plant in Canton Ohio, sourcing milk from farms in that regions of the country.

 

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Food City is a grocery store chain of approximately 130 stores located from Southwest Virginia to Eastern KY, through East TN and into North GA.  This is a chain I know well, since I am frequently in their stores, and I know vegetable growers who sell produce at Food City.    This chain, like many,  has been challenged with all of the panic buying experienced by many groceries across the country, with shortages at times.  The ‘new normal’ has still not settled in, but things are better than at the beginning of the pandemic hoarding.

Read some related articles about the effect Coronavirus buying had on Food City:

 

Read More about Food City in general:

 

None of us in farming, food, or the supply chain have any idea what the ‘new normal’ will be when the Coronavirus is more under control and life gets back into more of a predictable routine.  While it is hoped sales of Southern Dairies branded milk take off like a rocket, that too is unknown at this point, and we’ll have to wait and see what other varieties or flavors of milk make it into retail channels.  But shelf space and access to consumers, ever how much it is, is a great beginning!

 

Food City and Milkco have teamed up to give dairy farmers who operate farms in the southeast something to be proud of when they walk into a Food City – that’s their milk on that shelf!   And this won’t only help local dairy farmers, this will help other farms in the area who grow grains which help feed those dairy herds, it will help local agribusinesses who serve those dairies, and it will give a sense of pride to local southeast communities.

And for that, many farms and agribusinesses in the southeast are grateful for this ‘carton of hope’ at Easter Weekend, 2020. 

Southern Dairies, you have our prayers and our support for a successful brand launch and future!

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Dean Foods: Earnings. Farms. Jobs. Communities. What’s Ahead?

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The Dean Foods Earnings Call, a webcast relaying financial news of Dean Foods, a publicly traded company, was held on the morning of Tuesday, May 7th, 2019.
The timeframe immediately before and after these publicly available Earnings Calls, for any company generally provide a wealth of information concerning the financial health and status of that company, along with various industry perspectives.
According to company information, Dean Foods is the “nation’s [US] largest processor and direct-to-store distributor of fluid milk.”  As such, any decisions made by the company will have a direct impact on local/regional dairy communities across the country, affecting many dairy farms and jobs within and related to the processing plants.
It can be said that Dean Foods is perhaps the company which is most supportive of the local and regional farm communities within a fairly close radius of each of its 58 plants.  Additionally, there are 19,000 local jobs in processing and distribution and related company functions at the plants.
Here are general takeaways from the Earnings Call – a grassroots perspective:
  • First: No really horrible news for farms or local business, or even Dean’s resulted from the Q1 call, which I consider a positive, given the company’s downward trending stock prices of late.
  • Second: Stock value was generally up for the day, with market share price at $1.75 at the time of close of business on May 7th.
  • Third: No immediate transitions or sales of the company were announced (as of that day), even though it is no secret the company is exploring options.  Whatever the company’s eventual decisions, there is no doubt that local communities and farm economies across the country will be impacted – but no one knows if that will be in a harmful or helpful manner at this writing. 
  • Fourth: The world of food in general – and dairy companies in particular – is fast-changing, so any news today may be very different a week from now.
Stockholders Meeting: The Dean Foods Stockholder Meeting occurred Wed, May 9th at 9 am, CDT.  The meeting is archived here if readers would like to listen in. There is a delay at the front of the meeting in the recording.
 
Prior to and following the May 7th Earnings Call: These Posts  (chronological)
  • May 6, 2019: Dean Has Got Milk but Few Growth Prospects as it Hunts for Buyer, by Lydia Mulvany and Katherine Doherty for Bloomberg
  • May 6, 2019: Dean Foods Falters from More Concentrated Milk Market – authored by Heather Haddon, for the Wall Street Journal:    (and in case you can’t get to the online edition, here’s a photo of the article as it appeared in print)
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  • May 7, 6:58 am, by Seeking Alpha: Dean Foods Misses Q1 Estimates – notes that sales declined in 9% in Q1 2019, and to this blogger’s understanding, the comparison point is Q1 in 2018 (will verify). Remember, in 2018, the company still had branded shelf space in Walmarts in several states in the projected distribution radius of the new Walmart plant at Fort Wayne, Indiana.
  • May 7, 10:23 am (after the call): Dean Says It’s Turning the Corner with Dairy Drain Set to End – by Lydia Mulvany and Katherine Doherty for Bloomberg – authors note the report was a ‘mixed bag,’ stated the company’s bonds gained on Tuesday (the day of the call) after ‘tumbling since late February.’
  • Dean Foods Company SEC Filing – Current report (8-K) May 7, 2018 (Financial Statement)
  • A Transcript of the Entire Call – posted by Seeking Alpha – access at this link  (21 pages if you print, follow a link to an audio recording): includes the opening statement by Dean Foods officials, including CEO Ralph Scozzafava, and a Q&A Session with Financial Analysts  from well-known companies
  • Slides – played in conjunction with the Dean Foods officials portions of the call, includes graphs and charts further explaining the verbal points – access at this link

And then following the call:

May 7th, Afternoon:  From the Dallas News:  “Dean Foods posts Wider Losses Than Expected in first quarter amid Conversations with Potential Buyers.”

An article by Dom Difurio, a breaking news business writer for the Dallas Morning News, included these three statements of note:
  • “On a call with analysts frustrated with a lack of details around when the company could turn a financial corner, Dean Foods also reiterated that it’s looking at strategic alternatives to accelerate its business transformation and enhance its value.”
  • “When asked whether the company was in talks with any potential buyers for the company, Scozzafava said it’s possible the company could do nothing.
  • “We’ve been in conversations with some folks, and we’ll leave it at that . . . we are very open minded and exploring some things,”  Scozzafava said.

May 7th, Afternoon:  Dean Foods (DF) Reports Q1 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates  from Zacks Equity Research, a financial publication.

“Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Food-Dairy Products is currently in the bottom 8% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.”
May 7, 2019 at 3:55 pm:   Dean Foods Needs an Activist Investor  
Posted at Seeking Alpha, authored by Holmes Osborne, of Osborne Global Investments
This is a blunt, tell-it-like-it-is perspective from a financial analyst’s viewpoint, who describes the company’s real estate and transportation assets as interesting. He also suggests some action items for the company to take in order to cause company value to rise.
With most of this blog’s readers in agriculture, it should be noted he suggests the company needs to widen its portfolio to include more plant-based or alternative beverages, or expand whey-protein production.
Parts of this article are a bit hard to read, but may be necessary to absorb in order to take action.
Also – take note, some of the $$$ referring to milk sales are not as impactful as he suggests due to market conditions of two different time frames, and some of his other statements related to agriculture show a bit of a lack of knowledge about grass-roots agriculture.
The Good News?  Osborne also suggests it may be time to buy stock, acknowledging it is risky at the moment.  The opening click title was  “Bottom-Fishing Investors, Snag Dean Foods.
May 8th, 2019, Morning:  “Dean Foods Sees Positives After a Quarterly Loss,” by Jeff Gelski for Food Business News.
  • CEO Ralph Scozzafava notes that a cost productivity plan and improvements in free cash flow provide optimistic things about the quarter
  • Scozzafava: “We believe we have passed the inflection point in our transformation, as many of the initiatives we implemented over the past 12 months are now beginning to take hold.”
  • Scozzafava (when asked about a potential sale):  “It’s very possible that we won’t do anything, and we’ll continue to execute the plant that we have, which we’re very happy with, and we’ll continue to make progress on it. “So look, we’ve been in conversations with some folks, and we’ll leave it at that.”
May 8th, 2019, 1:42 pm: “Dean Foods Seen Trading at Fair Value,” posted at Seeking Alpha and authored by Clark Schultz.
  • Notes this from Wells-Fargo Analyst John Baumgartner:  “The outlook features some positives (seq. EBIT improvement, positive FCF, new business wins), but we think weak volumes, expansive price gaps, and inflationary price basis to dairy costs maintain DF in a vulnerable position.”
  • “Wells-Fargo has a Market Perform rating and a target price of $2 on Dean Foods.”
May 9th: Stock closed at $1.65/share
May 10th, 2019, Afternoon:   “Why Dean Foods (DF) Stock Price Advanced Up to 5.76% Today”  by Samuel Moore for Find News
  • Moore observes that stock has an (average analyst) potential target price of $3.47 share, thus a potential to rise 98.29% increase from recent ranges of $1.57 to $1.71.
  • Trading volume was considered high
Dean Foods stock closed at $1.76 for the week of the Earnings Call, up 11 cents from a close at $1.65 on Friday May 3rd.
May 13th, 2019 (Monday):  Dean Foods Shares Up 11.4%”by Harvey Truce for Rockland Register.  Surprisingly,  Dean Foods stock rose 20 cents/share in light trading volume.   A midday report was posted by Ethane Eddington for the Press Recorder, “Dean Foods (DF) Add 4.5%, Cementing Place as Top Mover Today.”
May 13th, Market Close: Stock closed at $1.96/share, and traded as high as $1.98 during the day.
June 3rd, 2019:  (Monday) Now is the Time to Bet on Dean Foods Company’s Stock: by William Josephs for Finch News, an online publication.
June 3rd, 2019:  Stock closed at $1.06.
June 5th, 2019  (Wed am):  Dean Foods Company (DF) Among Top Stocks to Watch Today:  by Denise Gardner, for Press Recorder
June 5th, 2019 (Wed, 1:34 pm): Dean Foods +13% after skirting with dropping below $1;    posted on Seeking Alpha by Clark Shultz
June 5th, 2019 (Wed):  Should Traders Take A Bit Out of Dean Foods Company?; by Kiel Taylor for US Post News
June 5th, 2019:  Stock closed at $1.22/share
June 6th, 2019: Stock closed at $1.22/share
June 7th, 2019, 8:44 am:  “Saputo takes a pass at Dean Foods”: Seeking Alpha news alert breaks news Saputo will not be acquiring Dean Foods, after earlier announcements Saputo was considering that acquisition.
June 7th, 2019, Midday: “Let’s Make some Money with: Dean Foods (DF) Company” – posted at Nasdaq News Updates, compiled by the NNU Team.  This article explains many of the terms and acronyms commonly used in financial reports about stock prices.
June 26th, 2019: America’s Biggest Milk Processor is Trading at Less than a Buck, by Lydia Mulvany and Katherine Doherty for Bloomberg.
June 26, 2019:  Dean Foods Stock closed at 95 cents / share  (Volume 2,552,000)
June 27, 2019:  Dean Foods Stock closed at 93 cents / share  (Volume 2,974,000)
June 28, 2019:  Dean Foods Stock closed at 92 cents / share  (Volume 4,959,000)
July 1, 2019: Dean Foods Stock closed at 93 cents / share (Volume 2,537,000)
July 2, 2019: Dean Foods Stock closed at 97 cents / share (Volume 2,264,000)
July 3, 2019: Dean Foods Stock closed at $1.07 / share (Volume 2,397,0000)
July 5, 2019: Dean Foods Stock closed at $1.10 / share (Volume 2,338,0000)
July 6th, 2019: Dean Foods Cut to “Sell” at ValuEngine, posted by Steve Reilly on Riverton Roll.
As those in the dairy industry know too well, this is an evolving story with lots of moving parts.  Look for additional updates as they become available.
And please keep in mind, this is mostly a chronicle or digest of information which has been published by other sources. This blog in no way suggests advice on taking actions either in the stock market or in a related business due to information published here.
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